Krestyanovedenie Крестьяноведение Russian Peasant Studies 2500-1809 2949-2564 OLJBCQ Научная статья Воздействие демографических шоков на динамику доходов от факторов производства и институциональное развитие доиндустриальной экономики России How demographic shocks affected the production-factor income and the institutional path of the Russian pre-industrial economy Диденко Дмитрий Валерьевич Didenko Dmitry V. Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы RU 01 2023 8 2 6 20

В данной статье автор исследует примеры нескольких шоков, связанных с потерями населения в России в XIV-XVII веков, их последствий для рынков и факторов производства, сравнивая с аналогичными примерами из истории Англии. Цель статьи - проверить теоретические закономерности и проследить формирование институционального пути развития средневековой России путем систематизации эмпирических свидетельств. Основные из них заимствованы из предшествующей исследовательской литературы. Используются также две русские летописи и нормативный акт (Уложение 1649 г.). Проведенный автором обзор нарративных и количественных свидетельств вносит вклад в историческую компаративистику экономических систем, в литературу об «эффекте колеи» в парадигме институциональной экономической истории. Кроме того, материал статьи способствует объяснению причин «малой дивергенции» между (северо-)западной и (юго-)восточной Европой с XV по XIX век, а впоследствии и корней «великой дивергенции» между Европой и Азией в XVIII - XX веках. Автор считает, что эмпирические данные советской марксистской экономической историографии сочетаются с недавними выводами неомальтузианской структурнодемографической теории и результатами количественных исследований школы клиодинамики. Сразу вслед за потрясениями в России заработная плата выросла, как и в Англии. Динамика доплаты за квалификацию свидетельствует о предпосылках формирования элементов человеческого капитала в недрах доиндустриальных обществ. Однако, в отличие от Англии, крепостное право, один из наиболее экстрактивных институтов, поддерживалось в России как ответ землевладельческой элиты на давление неблагоприятного для нее сочетания доходов от факторов производства. Это привело к повышению отношения земельной ренты к заработной плате и преимущественному использованию в сельском хозяйстве землесберегающих, а не трудосберегающих технологий.

The author considers several Russian cases of population-loss shocks in the 14th - 17th centuries and their consequences for the production-factor markets, comparing them with those in England. The article aims at verifying theoretical ideas and at tracing the institutional path of mediaeval Russia's development based on the empirical data represented in the research works, two chronicles and the legal act (Code of 1649). The author's review of narratives and statistical data contributes to the historical comparative studies of economic systems and of the path dependence in the institutional economic history. The article contributes to the explanation of the causes of the ‘Little Divergence' between (North)western and (South)eastern Europe in the 15th - 19th centuries, and of the roots of the ‘Great Divergence' between Europe and Asia in the 18th - 20th centuries. The author argues that the empirical evidence from the Soviet Marxist economic historiography is consistent with the recent findings of the neo-Malthusian structural-demographic theory supported by the Cliodynamics school of quantitative history. After the shocks, wages rose in Russia just as in England. The dynamics of the skill premia highlights the background for formation of human capital ingredients in the bowels of the pre-industrial societies. Contrary to England, serfdom, one of the most extractive institutions, remained in Russia as a response of landlords to the pressure from the disadvantageous combination of production-factor incomes, which led to an increase in land rent to wage ratio and to reliance on land-saving (versus labour-saving) technologies in agriculture.

 земельная рента реальная заработная плата доплата за квалификацию черная смерть смутное время крепостное право мальтузианский режим роста структурно-демографическая теория land rent real wage skill premia BLACK death time of Troubles serfdom Malthusian growth regime structural-demographic theory

Полнотекстовая версия статьи готовится к публикации.

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